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Commentary · Ohio workforce & immigration enforcement
$6.9 billion
Ohio’s projected share of federal mass-deportation spending, about $1,670 for the average Ohio filer who owes federal income tax. And that is before counting the workers, businesses, and tax revenue Ohio stands to lose.
Are Ohio taxpayers paying for ICE? Yes, through their share of federal taxes. The Economic Policy Institute’s deportation cost calculator divides a projected $268.9 billion federal mass-deportation cost among the states by each state’s share of federal income taxes. Ohio’s portion is nearly $6.9 billion through the rest of President Trump’s term, about $1,670 per Ohio filer who owes tax after credits. It is an allocation of federal spending, not a new charge on an Ohio tax return.
- $1,670Projected cost per Ohio filer who owes federal income tax (EPI)
- 7,756People ICE detained in Ohio, Jan. 2025 to Mar. 2026
- 47%Of those detained had no criminal history
- $7.3BTaxes paid by Ohio immigrant households in 2023
Why the pocketbook may be where Ohioans feel it
Most Americans are more worried about gas and grocery prices than about aggressive ICE enforcement in their immigrant neighbors’ communities. A friend told me recently that until people feel enforcement in their own lives, the outrage won’t come.
The financial side may be where many Ohioans finally do feel it: in their federal tax dollars, in longer waits for home care, and in local businesses that can’t find workers. The $6.9 billion is real money drawn from taxes Ohioans already pay. It also leaves out a second bill, the one Ohio pays when enforcement removes workers, customers, and business owners from its communities.
Who is ICE detaining in Ohio?
The administration says it is targeting the “worst of the worst.” The Ohio numbers show a much wider net.
What the administration says
Enforcement is focused on the “worst of the worst.”
What Ohio’s records show
Of 7,756 people detained, 47% had no criminal history and fewer than 5% had a violent conviction.
A review of federal records reported by cleveland.com covered January 2025 through March 2026. Some detainees had pending charges or nonviolent offenses, including traffic violations such as driving without a license. Others were held only for civil status violations, such as a visa overstay or the end of temporary protected status.
Detention often leads to removal. A Deportation Data Project analysis found that among detainees with no criminal conviction and no prior removal order, the share deported within 60 days of booking roughly doubled during the administration’s first year.
How does mass deportation affect Ohio’s workforce?
Ohio employers are already short of workers. A May 2026 OhioMeansJobs report counted 126,739 online job postings, including 4,596 for registered nurses. Immigrants make up 6.2% of Ohio’s overall workforce but a larger share of several key industries, according to the American Immigration Council:
| Ohio occupation or industry | Immigrant share of workers |
|---|---|
| Personal-care aides | 15.7% |
| Transportation and warehousing | 9.1% |
| Manufacturing | 7.6% |
| Agriculture | 6.9% |
| Construction | 6.2% |
| All Ohio workers | 6.2% |
Those figures include naturalized citizens, green card holders, and visa holders, not only people at risk of removal. The damage also reaches U.S.-born workers. A 2026 National Bureau of Economic Research working paper found that for every six likely undocumented men who lost work after increased ICE activity, one U.S.-born man without a college degree lost work too. When employers can’t staff a line or a job site, they cut output, turn down contracts, or build their next expansion somewhere else.
What do immigrants contribute to Ohio’s economy?
In 2023, immigrant households in Ohio paid $7.3 billion in federal, state, and local taxes and held $20 billion in spending power, according to the American Immigration Council. More than 38,200 immigrant entrepreneurs, 8.2% of all Ohio entrepreneurs, earned $1 billion in business income.
Immigrants also help hold up Ohio’s population. Net migration added 146,471 residents since 2020, more than the state’s total growth of 101,065, according to JobsOhio’s summary of Census estimates. Cleveland’s 2025 population is still 2.4% below its 2020 level, according to the Census Bureau.
Is Ohio working against its own workforce strategy?
JobsOhio offers employers up to $15,000 for each qualifying out-of-state STEM or technical hire. At the same time, Ohio’s share of federal enforcement spending goes toward removing people who already live and work here. Paying to recruit workers while funding the removal of others is not a coherent economic development plan. That conviction is why I helped found Global Cleveland: a region that has lost population cannot afford to treat newcomers as a threat.
What should Ohio leaders do?
People who pose genuine threats should remain enforcement priorities, and immigration is no substitute for better wages, safer workplaces, and serious training for Ohioans. But Gov. Mike DeWine has already acknowledged that Ohio needs immigrants. He and JobsOhio should say plainly that broad removal undercuts the state’s workforce goals. Ohio’s congressional delegation should push for legal employment channels that match workforce needs, dependable seasonal-worker programs, and a workable path to legal status for long-settled residents without serious criminal records.
Read the full commentary: “Ohio taxpayers face a $1,670 deportation bill, and a smaller workforce” by Richard T. Herman, Ohio Capital Journal, September 22, 2026.
Frequently asked questions
Is the $1,670 deportation cost a new tax on Ohioans?
No. The $1,670 figure is the Economic Policy Institute’s estimate of each Ohio filer’s share of projected federal mass-deportation spending, based on Ohio’s share of federal income taxes. It is not a separate charge on a tax return.
How much will mass deportation cost Ohio?
EPI projects Ohio’s share of federal mass-deportation costs at nearly $6.9 billion through the remainder of President Trump’s term. That figure does not include indirect costs such as lost workers, lost business income, and lower tax revenue.
How many people has ICE detained in Ohio?
A review of federal records found ICE detained 7,756 people in Ohio between January 2025 and March 2026. Forty-seven percent had no criminal history, and fewer than 5% had been convicted of a violent offense.
Which Ohio industries depend most on immigrant workers?
According to the American Immigration Council, immigrants are 15.7% of Ohio’s personal-care aides, 9.1% of transportation and warehousing workers, 7.6% of manufacturing workers, 6.9% of agricultural workers, and 6.2% of construction workers.
Who is Richard T. Herman?
Richard T. Herman is a Cleveland immigration attorney with more than 30 years of practice, the founder of Herman Legal Group, co-author of Immigrant, Inc., and helped found Global Cleveland. He writes frequently on immigration law and Ohio’s economy.
Related reading
Sources
- Richard T. Herman, “Ohio taxpayers face a $1,670 deportation bill, and a smaller workforce”, Ohio Capital Journal, September 22, 2026 (original commentary)
- Economic Policy Institute, Cost of Deportations Calculator and its technical documentation (state-by-state allocation of projected federal costs)
- Axios Cleveland, Ohio taxpayers’ share of deportation costs
- cleveland.com, review of federal records on Ohio ICE detainees (7,756 detained; 47% with no criminal history)
- Deportation Data Project, Immigration Enforcement in the Administration’s First Year (PDF)
- Ohio Department of Job and Family Services, OhioMeansJobs online job postings, May 2026 (PDF)
- American Immigration Council, 2026 Ohio Workforce Brief (PDF) and Immigrants in Ohio fact sheet; Ohio immigrant entrepreneur data
- National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper 35129 (PDF), on employment effects of increased ICE activity
- JobsOhio, latest Census data on Ohio population growth and relocation incentives
- U.S. Census Bureau, QuickFacts: Cleveland, Ohio
- Ohio Capital Journal, Gov. DeWine on keeping immigrants in Ohio
This article provides general information and commentary, not legal advice. Reading it does not create an attorney-client relationship.
