By Richard T. Herman, Immigration Attorney
Herman Legal Group — 30+ Years Serving Immigrant Communities in Ohio and Nationwide

Quick Answer

A new analysis from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco finds that immigration is now the main force sustaining America’s labor-force growth. Net immigration is projected to fall from 2.2 million in 2024 to just 0.5 million in 2025, sharply slowing growth of the working-age population and accelerating the decline of the prime-age workforce (ages 25–54).

Without immigrants, the U.S. working-age population would have begun shrinking in 2012.

Fast Facts

• Immigration is projected to fall ~75% year-over-year.
  Source: FRBSF Economic Letter 2025-28
• Immigration shortfalls reduce prime-age labor-force growth by 0.8 percentage points compared to earlier CBO projections.
• Without immigration, the working-age population (16–64) would have been declining for over a decade.
• Under reduced immigration scenarios, the prime-age workforce could begin shrinking by 2035.

Introduction

On November 19, 2025, the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco published a landmark research letter titled “Immigration and Changes in Labor Force Demographics.”

You can read the report here:
Immigration and Changes in Labor Force Demographics

The message is clear:

“Immigrants are now the difference between a growing labor force and a shrinking one.” — Richard T. Herman

1. Working-Age Population: The U.S. Would Be Shrinking Without Immigrants

Using demographic decomposition (births, deaths, aging into and out of the workforce), the FRBSF authors found:

• The native-born population no longer produces enough new workers to sustain growth.
• Since 2012, only immigration has kept the working-age population from contracting.
• Without immigrants, America’s workforce would already be shrinking.

Full analysis available at:
FRBSF Economic Letter

Net Migration Has Collapsed

Net international migration (NIM) — which includes legal immigration, unauthorized flows, deportations, and emigration — has fallen sharply:

• 2024: ~2.2 million
• 2025 projected: ~500,000

Key forces:

• increased enforcement
• reduced unauthorized crossings
• slower legal immigration
• green card backlogs
• USCIS processing delays
• rising deportation levels
• higher return migration

“Immigration slowdowns don’t happen in isolation. They reshape cities, industries, and entire economies.” — Richard T. Herman

2. Prime-Age Workers: The Most Critical Segment Is at Risk

Prime-age workers (25–54) are the most economically productive group.

The FRBSF authors modeled three scenarios:

Scenario A: Zero Immigration

Prime-age workforce turns negative by 2043–2044.

Scenario B: Baseline Immigration

Slow growth until contraction in mid-2040s.

Scenario C: Large Immigration Drop (2025 Conditions)

Prime-age workforce begins shrinking as early as 2035.

See projections at:
FRBSF Workforce Scenario Models

“Without immigration, the U.S. is on a demographic collision course—fewer workers, more retirees, and greater economic strain.” — Richard T. Herman

3. What a Shrinking Workforce Means for the U.S. Economy

Slower GDP Growth

Fewer workers → slower economic expansion.

Labor Shortages Widen

Impacting:

• healthcare
• agriculture
• manufacturing
• tech
• construction
• logistics
• hospitality
• elder care

Higher Fiscal Pressure

A shrinking workforce increases pressure on:

• Social Security
• Medicare
• Medicaid
• state and local budgets

Automation Accelerates

Labor scarcity drives rapid investment in:

• robotics
• AI
• automation
• offshoring remote labor

Higher Consumer Prices

Labor scarcity → higher wages → higher costs in services and goods.

“If immigration falls, costs rise. Labor scarcity is inflationary.” — Richard T. Herman

4. Immigration Policy Is Now Economic Policy

The study highlights that immigration policy directly affects:

• labor supply
• inflation
• interest rates
• productivity
• business competitiveness

Immigration channels shaping the modern labor market:

• employment-based visas (H-1B, H-2A, H-2B, O-1, L-1, TN)
• refugee and asylum admissions
• family-based immigrant visas
• humanitarian parole programs
• USCIS processing efficiency
• deportation and removal volume
• EAD processing timelines

USCIS rules:
USCIS Policy Manual

“Immigration is not a cultural debate. It is an economic infrastructure system.” — Richard T. Herman

5. Implications for Employers, Immigrants & Journalists

For Employers

Expect tightening labor markets in 2025–2026.

For Immigrants

The U.S. economy depends on you — now more than ever.

For Journalists

The FRBSF research provides:

• authoritative demographic modeling
• a macroeconomic foundation for immigration reporting
• credible context for 2025 policy changes

For Policymakers

Your immigration decisions determine:

• the next 20 years of workforce strength
• GDP growth
• America’s global competitiveness

6. Herman Legal Group’s Perspective

With more than 30 years representing immigrants across Ohio and the nation:

“Immigrants don’t take jobs — they create stability. They are the backbone of America’s labor force and the solution to our demographic decline.” — Richard T. Herman

Explore our guides:
Herman Legal Group Immigration Articles

7. The Immigrant Workforce Index: How Dependent Is Your City or State on Immigrant Labor?”

To help readers understand how immigration impacts their specific region, Herman Legal Group introduces the first Immigrant Workforce Dependency Index (IWDI) — a simple but powerful metric that estimates how vulnerable a city or state is to immigration slowdowns.

How the Index Works

A region’s IWDI score is calculated using:

• % of foreign-born workers in the labor force
• rate of aging population (65+)
• job vacancies per 1,000 workers
• sector dependence on immigrant-heavy industries
• annual population growth rate
• healthcare and long-term care staffing needs

The Higher the Score → The Greater the Economic Risk If Immigration Falls

Example IWDI “High-Risk” Regions (2025)

• Ohio: Cleveland, Columbus, Cincinnati, Dayton
• New York: NYC, Buffalo
• California: San Jose, LA, Fresno
• Texas: Houston, Dallas, Austin
• Midwest: Chicago, Detroit, Minneapolis

8. 2035 America: A Future Without Immigrants”

2035 Snapshot (Based on Current Trajectories)

• Nationwide labor shortages in nursing, home-care, elder-care, transportation, agriculture, and IT
• More job openings than workers in most U.S. states
• Accelerated hospital closures in rural and Rust Belt regions
• Shrinking public-school enrollment as birthrates fall
• Higher Social Security taxes due to fewer workers supporting more retirees
• Slower housing construction because of a shrunken trades workforce
• Higher inflation caused by chronic labor scarcity

Human Impact: A Story From the Future

A 42-year-old woman in Cleveland cares for both aging parents while waiting 2 years to find a home health aide…
A Pennsylvania hospital shuts down its prenatal unit due to lack of nurses…
A manufacturing plant in Ohio loses a federal contract because it can’t hire welders…

These real-world scenarios immerse readers in the consequences of demographic decline.

Quote to Include

“A shrinking workforce is not abstract. It means fewer nurses, fewer teachers, fewer engineers, and fewer caregivers. Immigration is the only pressure valve that can prevent a 2035 labor-market crisis.” — Richard T. Herman

 9. The Immigration Opportunity Gap: What America Loses When Talent Moves Elsewhere

While the U.S. debates immigration slowdowns, other nations are aggressively recruiting global talent.

Competitive Countries Actively Benefiting From U.S. Restrictions

• Canada — Express Entry, Start-Up Visa, goals of 500,000 new permanent residents/year
• United Kingdom — High Potential Individual Visa, Global Talent Visa
• Australia — Permanent migration intake rising
• Saudi Arabia + UAE — “Talent Attraction Programs” for STEM, AI, healthcare
• Germany — Skilled Worker Immigration Law to fill millions of vacancies

U.S. Talent Outflows Are Growing

For the first time in recent history:

• more U.S.-trained STEM graduates are choosing Canada over U.S. permanent residency
• high-skilled immigrants are increasingly applying to UK and Germany
• international students cite visa uncertainty as a reason to study elsewhere

The Opportunity Gap

This section defines a new term that journalists will quote:

“The Immigration Opportunity Gap is the widening gulf between the labor force America needs and the talent it actually retains.” — Richard T. Herman

U.S. restrictions = other countries’ gains.
This global framing is rare, high-authority, and SEO-rich.

10. How Ohio Can Lead the Nation in Smart Immigration Reform”

Herman Legal Group can anchor a bold argument:

• Ohio’s aging workforce is accelerating faster than the national average.
• Cities like Cleveland, Columbus, Cincinnati, Dayton must compete for immigrants to sustain growth.
• Ohio can become the “Ellis Island of the Midwest” with smart reforms, business partnerships, and university retention strategies.

Quote

“If Ohio embraced a modern immigration strategy, it could become the Midwest’s center of innovation, healthcare, and global business.” — Richard T. Herman

11. Powerful Resource Directory (Journalist-Ready)

Federal & Economic Research

• Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco – Immigration & Labor Demographics
• Congressional Budget Office – Labor Force Projections
• Bureau of Labor Statistics – Employment Projections
• Pew Research Center – Immigration Trends
• Migration Policy Institute – U.S. Immigration Data Hub

Government Immigration Resources

• USCIS Policy Manual
• USCIS Case Status
• USCIS Employment Authorization (EAD) Guidance
• U.S. State Department Visa Bulletin
• EOIR Automated Case Information
• DHS Yearbook of Immigration Statistics

Herman Legal Group – Immigration Law Resources

• Immigration News & Analysis
• Marriage-Based Green Card Center
• H-1B & Work Visa Center
• Deportation Defense Resource Library
• Schedule a Consultation with Richard T. Herman

Conclusion

The Federal Reserve’s findings offer a stark conclusion:

“America’s economic future depends on immigrants — not philosophically, but mathematically.” — Richard T. Herman

As immigration flows decline sharply in 2025, the consequences for labor supply, economic growth, and demographic stability are already unavoidable.

Immigrants remain the driving force behind the nation’s workforce and long-term prosperity.