December 2024 Visa Bulletin and Predictions

The allocation of visas, especially for family-sponsored and employment-based green cards, follows a complex quota system established by Congress. This system caps the number of green cards that can be issued annually in different categories, with certain exemptions, such as for immediate relatives. Understanding this system helps applicants navigate the visa process and anticipate potential wait times.

For immediate relatives of U.S. citizens, there is no numerical limit on visas. Immediate relatives include:

1. Spouses of U.S. citizens.
2. Unmarried children under 21 of U.S. citizens.
3. Parents of U.S. citizens (if the petitioning citizen is 21 or older).

Since there is no annual cap, applicants in this category do not face backlogs due to visa numbers. However, they must still meet eligibility requirements, go through processing at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) and the Department of State, and adhere to general application timelines.

Family-sponsored visas for other relatives (not immediate relatives) are subject to annual numerical limits based on the worldwide family preference level as determined by the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA):

• The total annual cap for family-based immigrant visas is set at 226,000.
• These visas are divided into preference categories, each with a specific allocation:
• F1 (Family First Preference): Unmarried adult children of U.S. citizens – 23,400 visas per year.
• F2 (Family Second Preference): Spouses and unmarried children of lawful permanent residents – 114,200 visas, with F2A reserved for spouses and minor children and F2B for unmarried adult children.
• F3 (Family Third Preference): Married children of U.S. citizens – 23,400 visas per year.
• F4 (Family Fourth Preference): Siblings of U.S. citizens – 65,000 visas per year.

Any unused visas in one category can sometimes flow into others; however, these family-based categories are typically oversubscribed, leading to lengthy wait times, particularly for applicants from countries with high demand, such as Mexico and the Philippines.

Employment-based green cards are subject to an annual cap of 140,000 visas. This category includes five primary preferences, each with an allocated percentage of the total:

1. EB-1 (Priority Workers): 28.6% (approximately 40,040 visas) for individuals with extraordinary ability, outstanding professors and researchers, and certain multinational executives.
2. EB-2 (Professionals with Advanced Degrees or Exceptional Ability): 28.6% (approximately 40,040 visas), including a set-aside for individuals from underrepresented countries.
3. EB-3 (Skilled Workers, Professionals, and Other Workers): 28.6% (approximately 40,040 visas), with a limit of 10,000 for “other workers” (those in positions requiring less than two years of experience).
4. EB-4 (Certain Special Immigrants): 7.1% (about 9,940 visas) for specific groups such as religious workers, international organization employees, and certain dependents of U.S. Armed Forces personnel.
5. EB-5 (Immigrant Investors): 7.1% (about 9,940 visas) for investors who create jobs in the U.S., with regional center projects receiving a significant portion. The EB-5 category, which focuses on employment creation, allocates 7.1% of employment-based visas for investors who create jobs in the U.S.

The fourth and fifth preferences, EB-4 and EB-5, have specific numerical allocations and limitations, with 9,940 visas each. Unutilized numbers from these preferences can affect the availability of visas in higher preferences, impacting the overall distribution based on demand.

Each country is limited to 7% of the total annual visas in any category, a rule that affects high-demand countries such as India and China, especially in the EB-2 and EB-3 categories. When applicants from these countries exceed their allocation, they face significant backlogs.

1. Retrogression: High-demand countries experience “retrogression,” where the priority dates for visa eligibility move backward. This affects applicants’ timelines as the availability of visas fluctuates monthly based on demand and annual visa limits.
2. Unused Visas: While unused family-based visas sometimes flow into employment-based categories (and vice versa), caps often result in unused visas that could otherwise reduce backlogs. Some policy proposals advocate for better reallocation of unused visas to help alleviate these delays.
3. Per-Country Cap Impact: The 7% per-country cap, while ensuring diversity, contributes to long waits for applicants from countries with large numbers of high-skilled immigrants, leading to calls for reforms to this system. This is the reason for longer wait times for applicants from high demand countries like India, China, Mexico and Philippines.
4. Backlogs by Country: As of June 2023 over 1.2 million employment-based immigrants are waiting for green cards with majority from India and China.
5. Aging Out Risks: Many applicants on temporary visas in the U.S. face risks if their children “age out” at 21 and become ineligible to adjust status under their parent’s application.

For a deeper explanation, read this.