Has Immigration Pendulum Started to Swing Back?

What 130 Years of American History Tell Us About Court Victories, Public Opinion Shifts, Mass Enforcement, and the Future of U.S. Immigration Policy

Quick Answer

Maybe.

After more than a year of increasingly aggressive immigration enforcement, federal courts, public opinion surveys, business leaders, universities, faith organizations, and immigrant communities are beginning to push back against some of the Administration’s most ambitious immigration initiatives.

Within just a few days in June 2026:

• A federal judge struck down the Administration’s $100,000 H-1B visa filing fee, concluding that the government lacked authority to impose what amounted to an unauthorized tax without congressional approval. See Reuters coverage of the ruling.
• A federal judge in Rhode Island invalidated USCIS policies that had frozen or delayed immigration benefits for nationals of dozens of designated countries, affecting green cards, work permits, asylum applications, and naturalization cases. See Reuters coverage of the Rhode Island decision.
• Federal courts across the country continued to scrutinize detention practices, bond hearing procedures, and executive immigration authority through an expanding wave of habeas corpus litigation.
• New polling suggested growing public discomfort with the scale and methods of immigration enforcement. According to a May 2026 survey, a majority of Americans now believe the Administration is doing “too much” regarding deportations. See Pew Research Center’s findings.

The immigration pendulum refers to the historical tendency of immigration policy to swing between openness and restrictionism.

The question facing immigrants, employers, policymakers, and immigration lawyers is no longer simply whether immigration policy has become more restrictive.

The more important question may be:

Has the immigration pendulum started to swing back?

History suggests that possibility deserves serious consideration.

Why This Article Matters

Immigration debates often focus on the latest executive order, court decision, enforcement action, or political controversy.

But immigration history is much bigger than any single administration.

Over the past 130 years, American immigration policy has repeatedly moved through cycles:

• restriction followed by expansion,
• exclusion followed by inclusion,
• fear followed by acceptance,
• enforcement followed by reform.

The details change.

The pattern remains remarkably consistent.

The Chinese Exclusion era eventually gave way to repeal.

The National Origins Quota System of 1924 ultimately yielded to the Immigration and Nationality Act of 1965.

California’s Proposition 187 helped trigger one of the most significant political realignments in modern American history.

Post-9/11 security measures eventually generated renewed debates about civil liberties, due process, and immigration reform.

Again and again, the immigration pendulum has swung.

The question confronting the United States today is whether another swing has already begun.

The Central Question of 2026: Did the Administration Overplay Its Hand?

Immigration was arguably the Administration’s strongest political issue entering 2025.

Many Americans were concerned about border security.

Many favored stronger enforcement.

Many supported removing violent criminals, gang members, traffickers, and recent unlawful entrants.

The Administration responded with one of the most aggressive immigration enforcement agendas in modern American history.

Among other initiatives, the government:

• expanded detention operations,
• increased interior enforcement,
• broadened travel restrictions,
• implemented nationality-based immigration policies,
• heightened scrutiny of legal immigration benefits,
• attempted to impose a $100,000 H-1B filing fee,
• adopted new restrictions affecting adjustment of status,
• expanded vetting and discretionary review.

Initially, many of these efforts enjoyed significant public support.

But immigration politics has always been more complicated than campaign slogans.

Americans often support immigration enforcement in principle.

Yet public opinion frequently becomes more nuanced when enforcement appears to affect:

• long-term residents,
• students,
• healthcare workers,
• mixed-status families,
• asylum seekers,
• lawful visa holders,
• children,
• individuals without significant criminal histories.

That distinction has repeatedly shaped immigration policy throughout American history.

It may be shaping 2026 as well.

Recent polling suggests Americans continue supporting border security while simultaneously expressing increasing concern about the scope and implementation of immigration enforcement.

That shift matters.

Because immigration policy rarely changes when only activists object.

Immigration policy changes when courts, businesses, universities, faith organizations, local communities, and ordinary voters begin asking the same question:

Has enforcement gone too far?

Why 2026 Feels Different

Every administration faces immigration litigation.

Every administration faces political opposition.

What makes 2026 different is the breadth of the reaction.

Pushback is emerging simultaneously from multiple institutions.

That is historically significant.

Federal Courts Are Becoming Increasingly Active

The judiciary has become one of the most important battlegrounds in immigration policy.

Recent federal court decisions have challenged:

• detention practices,
• nationality-based restrictions,
• visa policies,
• asylum limitations,
• USCIS adjudication freezes,
• agency authority under the Administrative Procedure Act,
• due process protections.

The Rhode Island decision invalidating USCIS benefit freezes is particularly significant because it rejected efforts to suspend adjudications affecting nationals of designated countries. See Reuters coverage of the decision.

Likewise, the federal court ruling striking down the $100,000 H-1B filing fee signals growing judicial scrutiny of executive efforts to reshape immigration policy through administrative action rather than legislation. See Reuters coverage of the H-1B ruling.

The significance of these decisions extends beyond their immediate impact.

Historically, courts often serve as the first institutional check when executive authority expands rapidly.

Businesses Are Pushing Back

Many of America’s most important economic sectors depend heavily upon immigrant labor and talent.

This includes:

• hospitals,
• universities,
• technology companies,
• research institutions,
• engineering firms,
• manufacturers,
• agricultural employers.

When immigration restrictions begin affecting economic competitiveness, business opposition often follows.

The litigation challenging the $100,000 H-1B filing fee demonstrated the extent to which employers, educational institutions, and state governments viewed the policy as economically harmful.

Historically, business opposition has often played a major role in immigration policy reversals.

Universities and Healthcare Systems Are Increasingly Concerned

American universities remain among the world’s most important destinations for international students, physicians, engineers, scientists, and researchers.

Likewise, healthcare systems throughout the United States depend heavily upon immigrant physicians, nurses, researchers, and healthcare professionals.

Restrictions affecting recruitment, mobility, visa processing, and permanent residence pathways inevitably generate resistance from institutions that depend upon global talent.

That pattern is becoming increasingly visible.

Faith Communities and Humanitarian Organizations Are Mobilizing

Throughout American history, religious organizations have often played a significant role in immigration debates.

Churches.

Synagogues.

Mosques.

Refugee organizations.

Humanitarian nonprofits.

Legal service providers.

Many of these organizations have become increasingly vocal regarding detention practices, family separation concerns, refugee restrictions, and humanitarian protections.

Historically, when faith communities become deeply engaged in immigration issues, broader public conversations often follow.

Local Communities Are Experiencing the Impact Directly

Immigration enforcement is no longer an abstract policy debate.

Communities throughout the country increasingly experience immigration enforcement firsthand.

Families.

Employers.

Schools.

Hospitals.

Neighborhoods.

Local governments.

The result is a much more visible and personal immigration debate than existed during earlier enforcement eras.

And that visibility may be the most important difference between 2026 and previous immigration crackdowns.

The Visibility Problem: Immigration Enforcement in the Smartphone Era

One of the most important differences between today’s immigration debate and earlier periods of restriction is technology.

Historically, immigration enforcement largely occurred out of public view.

Most Americans rarely witnessed:

• immigration arrests,
• detention facilities,
• removal proceedings,
• asylum hearings,
• workplace operations,
• family separations.

Today, that has changed dramatically.

• Every arrest can become a video.
• Every detention incident can become a social media story.
• Every enforcement controversy can become national news.
• Every government mistake can spread across the country within hours.

Whether one supports or opposes current immigration policies, immigration enforcement is now more visible than at any previous point in American history.

That visibility affects public opinion.

Americans may support enforcement in the abstract.

They often react differently when confronted with individual stories involving:

• children,
• students,
• military families,
• healthcare workers,
• longtime residents,
• asylum seekers,
• lawful permanent residents.

Political scientists have observed this pattern repeatedly throughout American history.

The more personal immigration stories become, the more complicated immigration politics tends to become.

The Question That May Define the Next Decade

No one knows whether 2026 will ultimately represent a turning point.

No one knows whether recent court victories will survive appeal.

No one knows whether current polling trends will continue.

But history teaches an important lesson.

Periods of aggressive immigration restriction frequently generate counterreactions.

• Sometimes those counterreactions are political.
• Sometimes they are legal.
• Sometimes they are economic.
• Sometimes they are cultural.

Often they are all four.

The question facing America today is not whether immigration enforcement will continue.

It almost certainly will.

The question is whether the country is beginning to move from an era dominated by enforcement toward an era increasingly focused on limits, accountability, due process, and balance.

The answer may shape American immigration policy for years to come.

130 Years of Immigration Pendulum Swings

Why Today’s Immigration Battles Are Part of a Much Larger American Story

If immigration policy appears unusually contentious in 2026, it is worth remembering that the United States has experienced similar moments before.

In fact, the history of American immigration is not a straight line.

It is a political pendulum.

For more than 130 years, immigration policy has repeatedly swung between two competing impulses:

• Restriction and openness.
• Fear and opportunity.
• Exclusion and inclusion.

Economic anxiety, national security concerns, demographic change, cultural tensions, labor demands, and political movements have repeatedly pushed the country in one direction before economic realities, constitutional principles, and changing public attitudes eventually pulled it back; this idea helps explain recurring shifts in both policy and public opinion.

Understanding these historical cycles provides important context for today’s debates over detention, deportation, travel bans, visa restrictions, asylum policy, adjustment of status, and executive authority.

The question is not whether America has experienced immigration backlashes before.

It has.

The question is whether 2026 represents the beginning of another historical correction.

First Swing: Chinese Exclusion and America’s First National Immigration Backlash

The first major modern immigration backlash emerged during the late nineteenth century.

Chinese immigrants had played a critical role in building railroads, mining operations, agriculture, and infrastructure throughout the American West.

Yet as economic conditions deteriorated during the 1870s and 1880s, political leaders increasingly blamed immigrants for labor competition and declining wages.

The result was the Chinese Exclusion Act of 1882, the first major federal law restricting immigration based primarily on nationality and ethnicity.

The law prohibited most Chinese labor immigration and established a framework that would influence American immigration policy for decades.

Supporters argued that exclusion was necessary to protect American workers.

Critics argued that it institutionalized racial discrimination.

At the time, exclusion enjoyed broad political support. High tariffs and immigration restrictions became common after 1828.

Few imagined it would eventually be viewed as one of the most notorious immigration laws in American history.

Yet over time public attitudes changed.

The law was eventually repealed in 1943 during World War II.

What had once been considered necessary became viewed as inconsistent with American values.

See the National Archives’ historical overview of the Chinese Exclusion Act: Chinese Exclusion Act Records.

The first lesson of immigration history is simple:

Policies that seem politically untouchable today may appear very differently decades later.

Second Swing: The Immigration Act of 1924 and the National Origins Quota System

The next major restrictionist wave arrived after World War I.

Economic instability.

Political unrest.

Fear of communism.

Concerns regarding cultural change.

These forces combined to produce one of the most restrictive immigration systems in American history.

Congress enacted the Immigration Act of 1924, also known as the Johnson-Reed Act.

The law established the National Origins Quota System.

Immigration from Northern and Western Europe was favored.

Immigration from Southern and Eastern Europe was sharply restricted.

Asian immigration remained largely prohibited.

Supporters argued that the legislation protected American identity and social cohesion.

Opponents argued that it codified ethnic, religious, and racial discrimination.

At the time, the law reflected mainstream political opinion.

Yet by the 1950s and 1960s, many Americans viewed the quota system very differently.

Civil rights movements, changing demographics, and Cold War concerns increasingly undermined support for immigration policies based on national origin.

The very system that had dominated American immigration policy for forty years ultimately became politically unsustainable.

Historical materials regarding the 1924 law are available through the Office of the Historian: Immigration Act of 1924.

Once again, the pendulum moved.

Third Swing: The Immigration and Nationality Act of 1965

If 1924 represented the high-water mark of immigration restriction, 1965 represented one of the most significant expansions in modern immigration history.

The Immigration and Nationality Act of 1965 abolished the National Origins Quota System and fundamentally transformed the American immigration system.

• Family reunification became a central principle.
• Employment-based immigration expanded.
• Nationality-based discrimination was substantially reduced.
• The legislation helped create the modern immigration system that exists today.

See the Office of the Historian’s discussion of the law: Immigration and Nationality Act of 1965.

The consequences were profound.

Over the following decades, immigration from Asia, Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East increased dramatically.

American cities changed.

Universities expanded.

Industries gained access to global talent.

Entrepreneurship flourished.

Yet success produced new political tensions.

As immigration increased, concerns regarding border security, labor markets, assimilation, and government services became increasingly prominent.

The seeds of the next backlash had already been planted.

The U.S. economy was most open after World War II until about 2010.

Fourth Swing: IRCA and the Search for Compromise

By the 1980s, unauthorized immigration had become a major political issue.

Congress responded with the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986 (IRCA).

IRCA represented an attempt to balance competing priorities.

The law legalized millions of undocumented immigrants already living in the United States.

At the same time, it imposed sanctions on employers who knowingly hired unauthorized workers.

Congress hoped legalization and enforcement would work together.

For a brief period, many believed the immigration debate had been resolved.

It had not.

Unauthorized migration continued.

Enforcement expanded.

Political disagreements intensified.

The lesson was important.

Immigration policy rarely produces permanent victories.

The competing interests underlying immigration debates inevitably reemerge.

Fifth Swing: California’s Proposition 187 and an Unexpected Political Realignment

Perhaps the most important historical comparison to today’s politics is California’s Proposition 187.

In the early 1990s, immigration became one of California’s most divisive political issues.

Governor Pete Wilson embraced aggressive immigration enforcement as a central political strategy, reflecting how some elected officials use immigration crackdowns during periods of backlash.

Proposition 187 sought to deny many public services and benefits to undocumented immigrants.

Initially, the measure appeared politically successful.

Voters approved it.

Supporters celebrated it.

Opponents challenged it.

Much of the initiative was later blocked in federal court.

See the Ninth Circuit’s discussion of the litigation: League of United Latin American Citizens v. Wilson.

But the most important consequence may have been political rather than legal.

1. Many scholars believe Proposition 187 accelerated long-term political changes throughout California.
2. Large immigrant communities became more politically engaged.
3. Naturalization rates increased.
4. Voter participation expanded.
5. Political coalitions shifted.

What appeared to be a short-term political victory ultimately produced long-term consequences that many supporters never anticipated.

That historical lesson remains highly relevant today.

Sixth Swing: September 11 and the Security Era

The terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 transformed immigration policy.

National security became the dominant immigration concern.

• Congress created the Department of Homeland Security.
• Screening procedures expanded.
• Visa processing became more intensive.
• Background investigations increased.
• Enforcement authority grew dramatically.
• Many Americans supported these changes.

The attacks had fundamentally altered the political environment.

Yet even during this period, concerns gradually emerged regarding:

• due process,
• civil liberties,
• indefinite detention,
• surveillance,
• executive authority,
• profiling.

The post-9/11 era demonstrates another recurring feature of immigration history.

Periods of heightened security concerns often produce expanded government authority.

Over time, courts, advocacy groups, and public opinion frequently begin examining the limits of that authority.

Seventh Swing: Arizona SB 1070 and the Supreme Court

In 2010, Arizona enacted SB 1070, one of the most controversial immigration laws in modern American history.

Supporters argued that federal authorities had failed to secure the border.

Opponents argued that the law encouraged racial profiling and undermined federal authority.

The litigation eventually reached the Supreme Court.

In Arizona v. United States, the Court invalidated several major provisions while preserving others.

See the Supreme Court opinion:Arizona v. United States.

The case reinforced a recurring principle of immigration law:

While states may play important roles, immigration remains primarily a federal responsibility.

More importantly, SB 1070 demonstrated how aggressive enforcement measures often generate significant legal and political resistance.

Eighth Swing: Family Separation and the Limits of Public Support

The family separation controversy of 2018 may offer one of the clearest examples of how immigration politics can change rapidly.

Many Americans supported stronger border enforcement.

Many supported greater deterrence.

Yet public reaction shifted dramatically when images emerged showing children separated from parents.

Litigation accelerated.

Media attention intensified.

Political pressure mounted.

Eventually, policy changes followed.

The lesson was not that Americans opposed immigration enforcement.

The lesson was that many Americans viewed certain enforcement methods as unacceptable.

That distinction remains important today.

Ninth Swing: The Great Enforcement Expansion of 2025-2026

The current period may eventually become known as one of the most consequential immigration enforcement eras in modern American history.

Recent years have seen:

• expanded detention,
• increased interior enforcement,
• travel restrictions,
• nationality-based immigration policies,
• heightened scrutiny of immigration benefits,
• expanded vetting,
• restrictions affecting adjustment of status,
• attempts to increase barriers to legal immigration.

For example, USCIS recently adopted PM-602-0199, which significantly altered the agency’s approach to adjustment-of-status adjudications.

Readers may review the memorandum here: USCIS PM-602-0199.

Supporters argue these policies restore integrity to the immigration system.

Critics argue they exceed statutory authority, create unnecessary hardship, and undermine longstanding immigration principles. The U.S. economy was most open after World War II until about 2010.

Negative net migration was recorded in the U.S. in 2025, influenced by restrictive immigration policies.

The legal battles are only beginning.

Why History Matters in 2026

The purpose of studying these earlier periods is not to suggest that history repeats itself perfectly.

It does not.

Every era is different.

Every immigration debate is unique.

Yet certain patterns emerge repeatedly.

Periods of restriction often generate:

• litigation,
• political mobilization,
• business opposition,
• academic criticism,
• humanitarian advocacy,
• judicial scrutiny.

Over time, those forces sometimes produce significant policy corrections.

The question facing the country today is whether those forces are beginning to converge once again.

The answer may determine the future of American immigration law.

Is the Pendulum Already Moving?

The Evidence That 2026 May Be a Turning Point in American Immigration Policy

History alone cannot tell us whether the immigration pendulum is swinging back.

History provides context.

What matters now is the evidence.

Are the same warning signs that preceded previous immigration policy reversals beginning to appear again?

No single court decision can answer that question.

No single poll can answer it.

No single protest, lawsuit, election, or executive order can answer it.

But when multiple indicators begin moving in the same direction at the same time, it is worth paying attention.

And that is precisely what appears to be happening in 2026.

Signal #1: Federal Courts Are Becoming Increasingly Skeptical of Executive Immigration Authority

Historically, one of the earliest signs of an immigration pendulum shift is judicial intervention.

During periods of rapid immigration expansion, courts often defer to executive agencies.

During periods of aggressive restriction, courts frequently begin examining whether those agencies have exceeded their legal authority.

That process appears to be accelerating.

The question is no longer whether courts will review these policies.

The question is whether courts will continue invalidating them.

Recent decisions suggest that possibility is real.

The Rhode Island Decision: A Major Judicial Warning Shot

On June 5, 2026, Chief Judge John McConnell of the U.S. District Court for the District of Rhode Island issued one of the most significant immigration rulings of the year.

The court invalidated USCIS policies that had effectively frozen or delayed immigration benefits for nationals of dozens of designated countries.

The affected benefits reportedly included:

• adjustment of status,
• employment authorization,
• asylum-related benefits,
• naturalization,
• refugee processing,
• other immigration benefits.

See Reuters coverage of the Rhode Island ruling.

The importance of the decision extends far beyond the plaintiffs.

The court’s ruling reinforces a fundamental principle of administrative law:

Federal agencies cannot simply stop adjudicating applications because they disagree with the applicants’ nationality.

USCIS may deny applications.

USCIS may investigate applications.

USCIS may issue Requests for Evidence.

USCIS may conduct security reviews.

But courts have repeatedly emphasized that agencies must operate within the limits established by Congress and the Administrative Procedure Act.

That principle could have implications far beyond the specific policies challenged in Rhode Island.

For a detailed analysis of the ruling, see HLG’s article: Rhode Island Court Strikes Down USCIS Benefits Freeze: What It Means for Your Green Card, Work Permit, Citizenship and Asylum Case.

The $100,000 H-1B Filing Fee Case

Just days later, another federal court delivered a second major setback to the Administration.

On June 8, 2026, U.S. District Judge Leo Sorokin invalidated the Administration’s controversial $100,000 H-1B filing fee.

See Reuters coverage of the H-1B ruling.

The Administration argued that the fee would protect American workers and discourage outsourcing.

Opponents argued that the fee effectively functioned as an unauthorized tax imposed without congressional authorization.

The court agreed.

The significance of the decision goes beyond H-1B visas.

The ruling reflects a broader judicial concern:

Can the executive branch fundamentally reshape immigration policy without Congress?

That question lies at the heart of many of the most important immigration lawsuits currently pending nationwide.

For employers, universities, hospitals, and foreign professionals, the decision represented a major victory.

For courts, it represented another indication that judges are increasingly willing to scrutinize aggressive immigration initiatives.

For a detailed analysis of the ruling, see HLG’s article: Federal Judge Strikes Down Trump’s 100000 H 1B Fee: Is the H-1B Crackdown Over?

Signal #2: Habeas Corpus Litigation Is Exploding Nationwide

Perhaps the most underreported immigration story of 2026 is the dramatic growth of immigration habeas corpus litigation.

For decades, many immigration detention cases remained largely hidden from public attention.

Today, that is changing.

Across the country, federal courts are increasingly hearing challenges involving:

• prolonged detention,
• bond hearing rights,
• due process violations,
• unlawful custody,
• delays in removal,
• detention conditions,
• statutory interpretation.

While individual outcomes vary, the volume of litigation itself is significant.

Historically, surging habeas litigation often reflects growing concern regarding executive detention authority.

Federal judges are being asked to answer increasingly fundamental questions:

• How long can someone be detained?
• When is a bond hearing required?
• What due process protections apply?
• What burden of proof must the government satisfy?
• When does detention become constitutionally problematic?

These questions increasingly place courts at the center of immigration policy.

And history suggests that when federal courts become deeply involved in detention issues, broader legal changes often follow.

Signal #3: Public Opinion May Be Beginning to Shift

Perhaps the most politically significant development involves public opinion.

For much of 2024 and early 2025, immigration was one of the Administration’s strongest political issues.

Many Americans wanted stronger border security.

Many supported tougher enforcement.

Many favored removing violent criminals and gang members.

But public opinion is rarely static.

Recent polling suggests Americans may be drawing distinctions between:

• border security and mass enforcement,
• criminal removals and community-wide operations,
• public safety and broad detention policies,
• illegal immigration and legal immigration.

ICE killing American protestors in Minneapolis has accelerated American’s disapproval of Trump’s aggressive immigration enforecement.

Those distinctions matter.

A May 2026 Pew Research Center survey found that 52% of Americans believed the Administration was doing too much regarding deportations.

Only 31% believed the government was doing the right amount.

See Pew Research’s deportation survey.

A Harvard-Harris survey similarly found growing concern regarding immigration enforcement practices.

See Harvard-Harris Poll.

Meanwhile, Gallup reported record-high percentages of Americans viewing immigration as beneficial to the country.

See Gallup’s immigration findings.

Record Gallup polling shows 79% of U.S. adults believe immigration is beneficial. The majority of Americans favor pathways to citizenship for undocumented immigrants.

Importantly, these surveys do not suggest Americans oppose immigration enforcement.

Most do not.

What they suggest is something more nuanced:

Americans increasingly appear to support enforcement directed at genuine public safety threats while expressing greater skepticism toward broad enforcement actions affecting families, students, workers, and longtime residents.

That distinction may prove enormously important politically.

Signal #4: Businesses Are Starting to Push Back

Historically, major immigration policy shifts rarely occur without business involvement.

Employers care about labor supply.

Universities care about students and researchers.

Hospitals care about physicians and nurses.

Technology companies care about engineers and scientists.

When immigration policies begin affecting economic competitiveness, political dynamics often change.

The challenge to the $100,000 H-1B fee demonstrated the breadth of institutional opposition.

States argued that the policy harmed:

• public universities,
• hospitals,
• schools,
• research institutions,
• government employers.

This mirrors previous periods in American history when business interests became major participants in immigration debates.

Labor shortages have been reported in sectors reliant on immigrant labor due to stricter regulations. High tariffs and immigration restrictions have increased U.S. economic closure. Bipartisan pressure is leading policymakers to explore targeted enforcement exemptions for essential workers.

Economic pressure often becomes one of the most powerful forces driving policy change.

Signal #5: PM-602-0199 May Trigger the Next Litigation Wave

The next major immigration battle may already be underway.

On May 21, 2026, USCIS issued Policy Memorandum PM-602-0199.

See PM-602-0199.

The memorandum fundamentally reorients adjustment-of-status adjudications by emphasizing that adjustment is an “extraordinary” discretionary benefit rather than a routine pathway to permanent residence.

The policy has generated intense debate.

Supporters argue the memorandum restores congressional intent and strengthens discretionary review.

Critics argue the policy exceeds statutory authority and effectively rewrites longstanding adjustment-of-status principles.

For an in-depth discussion, see HLG’s analysis: USCIS PM-602-0199: What the New Adjustment of Status Memo Means for Green Card Applicants.

Whether PM-602-0199 ultimately survives judicial review remains uncertain.

But one thing appears increasingly likely:

The memorandum will generate substantial litigation.

And that litigation may become one of the defining immigration battles of the next several years.

What Courts May Be Signaling

Taken individually, each of these developments could be dismissed as isolated events.

A court ruling.

A lawsuit.

A poll.

A policy dispute.

Viewed together, however, they suggest something larger.

Courts appear increasingly willing to scrutinize executive immigration authority.

Businesses appear increasingly willing to challenge immigration restrictions.

Public opinion appears increasingly nuanced.

Litigation is expanding.

Institutional resistance is growing.

Historically, these are precisely the kinds of indicators that often emerge before significant policy corrections occur.

That does not mean every Administration policy will be struck down.

It does not mean enforcement will end.

It does not mean immigration reform is imminent.

But it may mean the legal and political environment is beginning to change.

And history suggests that once those changes begin, they can accelerate surprisingly quickly.

The Bigger Question

The most important question facing immigration lawyers, policymakers, employers, and immigrant families is no longer whether immigration enforcement will continue.

It will.

The more important question is whether Americans are beginning to distinguish between enforcement that promotes public safety and enforcement that appears excessive, indiscriminate, or inconsistent with traditional American values.

That distinction has shaped every major immigration cycle over the past 130 years.

It may shape the next one as well.

What Happens Next?

What History Predicts About the Future of Immigration Policy

If history is any guide, the most important immigration stories of 2026 have not happened yet.

The Rhode Island decision.

The H-1B fee ruling.

The growing wave of habeas corpus litigation.

The debate over PM-602-0199.

The shifting public opinion data.

These developments may prove significant.

But historically, they are not the end of the story.

They are often the beginning.

When immigration pendulums begin moving, the movement tends to unfold over years rather than months, and history suggests the pendulum will swing back even if that outcome is never guaranteed.

The legal battles expand.

Political coalitions shift.

Public opinion evolves.

Courts become increasingly involved.

Economic realities begin exerting pressure.

Eventually, policymakers are forced to respond.

The question is not whether immigration policy will continue changing.

The question is how.

Prediction #1: The Courts Will Become the Primary Immigration Battleground

For much of the twentieth century, Congress was the primary arena for immigration reform.

That is increasingly no longer true.

Congress remains deeply divided.

Comprehensive immigration reform appears unlikely in the near future.

As a result, presidents increasingly rely upon executive authority.

Federal agencies increasingly rely upon administrative guidance.

And federal courts increasingly become the institutions deciding where executive authority ends.

That pattern is already visible.

The most consequential immigration developments of 2026 have emerged not from Congress but from litigation.

The Rhode Island decision.

The H-1B fee ruling.

The expanding detention cases.

The growing Administrative Procedure Act challenges.

The constitutional claims.

The statutory interpretation disputes.

Immigration lawyers should expect significantly more litigation over:

• detention,
• bond hearings,
• travel restrictions,
• visa processing,
• nationality-based policies,
• adjustment of status,
• agency discretion,
• due process.

The judiciary is likely to remain the central battlefield for immigration policy throughout the remainder of the decade.

Prediction #2: PM-602-0199 May Become the Most Important Immigration Lawsuit of the Decade

Few policies have generated as much concern among immigration lawyers as USCIS Policy Memorandum PM-602-0199.

See USCIS PM-602-0199.

The memorandum fundamentally alters how USCIS approaches adjustment of status.

Historically, adjustment of status has served as one of the most important pathways to permanent residence.

Family members.

Spouses.

Parents.

Employment-based applicants.

Diversity visa winners.

Many have relied upon adjustment of status to obtain lawful permanent residence without leaving the United States.

PM-602-0199 reemphasizes that adjustment is discretionary and describes it as an extraordinary form of relief.

Supporters view the memorandum as a restoration of congressional intent.

Critics argue that the policy improperly elevates discretion above statutory eligibility.

Those competing interpretations are almost certain to generate litigation.

Several questions are likely to emerge:

• Can USCIS effectively create a presumption against adjustment?
• Can USCIS prioritize consular processing over adjustment?
• How much discretion is too much discretion?
• Does the memorandum conflict with existing statutes or regulations?
• Are there Administrative Procedure Act vulnerabilities?

The answers may ultimately come from federal courts.

And those answers could affect hundreds of thousands of future green card applicants.

For ongoing coverage, see HLG’s adjustment-of-status resources:

• Adjustment of Status Guide
• Marriage Green Card Process
• I-485 Application Resources

Prediction #3: Detention Litigation Will Continue Expanding

One of the most overlooked developments in immigration law is the increasing importance of detention litigation.

Historically, detention cases often remained hidden from public view.

Today, federal courts are confronting increasingly difficult questions involving:

• prolonged detention,
• constitutional protections,
• bond hearing standards,
• mandatory detention statutes,
• procedural fairness,
• removal delays.

These cases are shaping the future of immigration law in ways that many outside the legal profession do not fully appreciate.

History suggests that when detention litigation reaches critical mass, broader legal reforms often follow.

The outcome of these cases may influence:

• detention practices,
• bond procedures,
• ICE policies,
• due process protections,
• federal court review.

For immigration practitioners, detention and habeas corpus litigation may become one of the most important practice areas of the next decade.

Prediction #4: Labor Markets Will Push Back Against Restriction

One of the strongest forces in immigration history is economics.

Political movements come and go.

Court decisions rise and fall.

Economic realities remain.

The United States continues to face long-term demographic challenges:

• declining birth rates,
• aging populations,
• labor shortages,
• healthcare workforce shortages,
• STEM workforce demands.

Many sectors of the economy depend heavily upon immigrant workers.

Healthcare.

Technology.

Agriculture.

Construction.

Hospitality.

Research.

Education.

The conflict between immigration restriction and labor market demand is likely to intensify.

The H-1B litigation may represent an early example of this tension.

See Reuters coverage of the H-1B ruling.

Historically, economic pressures have often moderated restrictive immigration policies.

There is little reason to believe that dynamic has disappeared.

Prediction #5: Universities Will Become Increasingly Influential

American universities have historically played an important role in immigration debates.

They attract:

• international students,
• physicians,
• researchers,
• engineers,
• entrepreneurs,
• future faculty members.

Restrictions affecting international mobility create direct consequences for higher education.

Universities are likely to become increasingly active participants in immigration litigation, policy debates, and legislative advocacy.

This trend is already emerging.

And it is likely to grow.

Prediction #6: Public Opinion Will Continue Becoming More Nuanced

One of the most interesting developments in recent polling is not that Americans support immigration.

Nor is it that Americans support enforcement.

Both can be true simultaneously.

The more important finding is that voters increasingly appear to distinguish between categories of immigrants.

For example:

Many voters support removing violent criminals.

Many voters support border security.

At the same time, many voters express discomfort regarding enforcement actions involving:

• longtime residents,
• spouses of U.S. citizens,
• children,
• students,
• healthcare workers,
• military families.

That distinction matters.

Historically, major immigration shifts often occur when voters begin differentiating between categories rather than viewing immigration as a single issue.

The data increasingly suggest that process may already be underway.

See:

• Pew Research Center
• Gallup Immigration Survey

Could 2026 Become Another Proposition 187 Moment?

One of the most intriguing historical comparisons involves California’s Proposition 187.

At the time, many supporters viewed Proposition 187 as a decisive political victory.

Yet the long-term consequences proved far more complicated.

Large immigrant communities became politically engaged.

Naturalization increased.

Voter participation expanded.

Political coalitions changed.

California’s political landscape shifted for generations.

The episode is often cited in debates over how aggressive immigration politics reshaped electoral coalitions in states that later became reliably Democratic, including many blue states.

History never repeats itself perfectly.

But it often rhymes.

The question is whether today’s enforcement era may eventually generate similar long-term consequences.

If it does, historians may look back on 2025 and 2026 as a turning point rather than a destination.

Richard Herman’s Predictions

After more than three decades practicing immigration law, several trends appear increasingly likely.

1. More Litigation

Federal courts will remain central players in immigration policy.

The volume of immigration litigation will continue increasing.

2. More Challenges to Agency Authority

Administrative Procedure Act litigation will expand.

Courts will increasingly scrutinize whether agencies have exceeded their statutory authority.

3. More Detention Cases

Detention-related litigation will become one of the fastest-growing areas of immigration law.

4. Greater Scrutiny of PM-602-0199

The adjustment-of-status memorandum is unlikely to avoid judicial review.

Federal courts will eventually confront its legality and scope.

5. Continued Public Debate

Immigration will remain one of the defining political issues of the decade.

But the debate will become more nuanced.

The central question will increasingly shift from:

“Should immigration laws be enforced?”

to:

“How should immigration laws be enforced, and where should the limits be?”

That distinction may ultimately define the next chapter of American immigration history.

The Most Important Lesson From History

Every generation believes its immigration battles are unique.

In some ways they are.

Yet history reveals a remarkably consistent pattern.

Periods of restriction often generate counterreactions.

Periods of expansion often generate backlash.

No immigration status quo lasts permanently because the pendulum keeps moving.

The pendulum keeps moving.

The evidence emerging in 2026 does not prove that another major shift has begun.

But it strongly suggests that the forces capable of producing such a shift are increasingly visible.

Courts.

Businesses.

Universities.

Faith communities.

Local governments.

Public opinion.

Demographic realities.

Economic pressures.

All are beginning to influence the conversation.

Whether those forces ultimately reshape immigration policy remains uncertain.

What is certain is that immigration law is entering a period of extraordinary legal, political, and historical significance.

And the next chapter is still being written.

What Immigrants, Employers, Families, Students, and Green Card Applicants Should Do Right Now

Practical Strategies for Navigating an Immigration System in Transition

If sections above focused on history, politics, litigation, and public opinion, this final section focuses on something far more important:

What should you do now?

Whether the immigration pendulum is swinging or not, one reality remains unchanged:

People still need green cards.

Families still need reunification.

Employers still need workers.

Students still need visas.

Detained immigrants still need legal representation.

Businesses still need compliance strategies.

And immigration cases still move forward every day.

The biggest mistake applicants can make during periods of uncertainty is assuming that policy changes, court rulings, or political headlines eliminate the need for planning.

They do not.

In fact, periods of legal uncertainty often make strategic planning even more important.

If You Have a Pending Adjustment of Status Case

Adjustment of status applicants face one of the most uncertain environments in years.

USCIS’s new memorandum, PM-602-0199, places increased emphasis on discretion and describes adjustment as an extraordinary benefit.

See USCIS PM-602-0199.

While litigation may eventually challenge aspects of the policy, applicants should assume the memorandum will influence adjudications for the foreseeable future.

That means applicants should focus on presenting the strongest possible discretionary case.

In addition to establishing statutory eligibility, applicants should consider documenting:

• family ties,
• community involvement,
• educational achievements,
• employment history,
• volunteer work,
• business ownership,
• property ownership,
• tax compliance,
• hardship factors,
• humanitarian considerations,
• military service by family members,
• long-term residence,
• contributions to local communities.

Many applicants have historically assumed that eligibility alone was enough.

The new environment suggests that discretionary evidence may become increasingly important.

Related HLG resources:

• Adjustment of Status Guide
• I-485 Application Guide
• Marriage Green Card Process

If You Are Married to a U.S. Citizen

Spouses of U.S. citizens remain among the strongest categories under immigration law.

However, increased scrutiny means applicants should prepare for more detailed review.

That includes:

• documenting the bona fide nature of the marriage,
• maintaining joint financial records,
• preserving evidence of cohabitation,
• retaining travel records,
• keeping photographs and family documentation,
• maintaining tax records and insurance records.

Applicants should not assume that straightforward cases will remain straightforward.

Even strong cases may face Requests for Evidence or additional scrutiny.

The best strategy is preparation.

If You Are an Employer Sponsoring Foreign Workers

The H-1B fee ruling was an important victory.

See Reuters coverage of the H-1B ruling.

But employers should not assume the legal battles are over.

The Administration may appeal.

New regulations may emerge.

Additional restrictions may be proposed.

Employers should:

• audit immigration compliance programs,
• review public access files,
• verify I-9 compliance,
• prepare for potential FDNS visits,
• evaluate workforce immigration risks,
• identify key employees requiring sponsorship,
• explore alternative visa categories where appropriate.

Businesses that plan ahead are generally better positioned to adapt to changing immigration policies.

Related resources:

• H-1B Visa Guide
• Employment-Based Immigration

If You Are an International Student

International students face a particularly challenging environment.

Students should pay close attention to:

• maintaining status,
• full-time enrollment requirements,
• employment authorization rules,
• travel considerations,
• OPT compliance,
• STEM OPT compliance,
• future sponsorship opportunities.

Students should also keep detailed records.

In periods of increased scrutiny, documentation often becomes critical.

This includes:

• transcripts,
• I-20s,
• employment records,
• tax records,
• academic achievements,
• internship documentation.

The strongest future immigration cases are often built on records created years earlier.

If You Are Facing Removal Proceedings

Perhaps no group is more directly affected by changing immigration policies than individuals in removal proceedings.

For these individuals, legal developments matter immediately.

Recent litigation involving detention, bond hearings, habeas corpus, and executive authority demonstrates that immigration law continues evolving rapidly.

Individuals facing removal should:

• preserve all immigration records,
• maintain copies of prior applications,
• obtain complete FOIA files where appropriate,
• document equities and hardship factors,
• identify potential forms of relief,
• seek qualified legal representation early.

Waiting is rarely a successful strategy.

Preparation almost always is.

Related resources:

• Removal Defense
• Immigration Detention
• Immigration Bond Hearings

If You Are Detained by ICE

One of the most important lessons from recent habeas corpus litigation is that detention cases are highly fact-specific.

Many detainees mistakenly assume that detention automatically means removal.

That is not true.

Depending upon the circumstances, detainees may have:

• bond hearing rights,
• habeas corpus remedies,
• procedural defenses,
• relief from removal,
• constitutional claims,
• statutory arguments.

The legal landscape continues to evolve.

Individuals detained by ICE should seek legal counsel as quickly as possible and ensure family members maintain copies of all relevant records.

If You Are Waiting Abroad for a Visa

Consular processing applicants face unique challenges.

Administrative processing.

Security reviews.

Interview delays.

Travel restrictions.

Policy changes.

All can affect visa issuance.

Applicants should:

• maintain valid contact information,
• monitor case status regularly,
• preserve supporting documentation,
• respond promptly to government requests,
• remain informed regarding policy developments.

Patience remains important.

So does preparation.

What Not to Do

Periods of uncertainty often produce panic.

Panic leads to mistakes.

Among the most common mistakes:

Do Not Ignore Government Notices

Requests for Evidence.

Notices of Intent to Deny.

Interview notices.

Biometrics appointments.

Missing deadlines can have severe consequences.

Do Not Assume Social Media Advice Is Correct

Immigration law is highly fact-specific.

What worked for one person may not apply to another.

Always verify information through reliable sources.

Useful resources include:

• USCIS
• Department of State
• Executive Office for Immigration Review

Do Not Delay Seeking Legal Advice

The earlier legal issues are identified, the more options typically exist.

Many immigration problems become significantly harder to fix after deadlines pass or adverse decisions are issued.

Why Preparation Matters More Than Prediction

One of the central themes of this article is uncertainty.

No one knows whether the immigration pendulum is swinging.

No one knows how courts will ultimately rule.

No one knows what policies future administrations will adopt.

No one knows whether Congress will act.

But uncertainty does not eliminate opportunity.

The immigrants who are most successful during periods of change are often those who prepare before changes occur.

They maintain records.

They preserve evidence.

They comply with requirements.

They understand their options.

They seek advice when needed.

And they position themselves to adapt as circumstances evolve.

That approach remains just as important today as it was during every previous immigration cycle discussed in this article.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Has the immigration pendulum really started to swing back?

No one can answer that with certainty.

What we can say is that several indicators that historically preceded immigration policy shifts are now visible:

• significant federal court rulings,
• growing litigation,
• increased judicial scrutiny of executive authority,
• changing public opinion,
• business opposition,
• university opposition,
• growing public debate regarding immigration enforcement.

Whether these developments become a lasting trend remains to be seen. But they are significant enough that immigration lawyers, policymakers, employers, and immigrant families should pay close attention. See Pew Research’s immigration polling. (Pew Research Center)

---

What happened in the Rhode Island immigration case?

On June 5, 2026, Chief Judge John McConnell of the U.S. District Court for the District of Rhode Island invalidated USCIS policies that had delayed or blocked immigration benefit adjudications for nationals of 39 designated countries.

The court found that the policies unlawfully prevented immigrants from receiving decisions on applications involving asylum, employment authorization, adjustment of status, and naturalization. See Reuters coverage and Rhode Island Current’s coverage with link to the 135-page opinion. (Reuters)

---

What happened to the $100,000 H-1B filing fee?

On June 8, 2026, U.S. District Judge Leo Sorokin ruled that the Administration’s $100,000 H-1B filing fee was unlawful because it constituted an unauthorized tax that Congress had never approved.

The court concluded that the executive branch lacked authority to impose such a fee unilaterally. See Reuters coverage of the ruling. (Reuters)

---

Is the H-1B issue over?

No.

The government is expected to appeal.

Additional litigation is likely.

Future administrations may attempt different approaches.

Employers and foreign professionals should continue monitoring developments closely. (Reuters)

---

What is PM-602-0199?

PM-602-0199 is USCIS’s May 21, 2026 memorandum concerning adjustment of status adjudications.

The memorandum emphasizes that adjustment of status is a discretionary benefit and describes adjustment as an extraordinary form of relief rather than a routine pathway to permanent residence.

Read the memorandum here:

USCIS PM-602-0199

---

Will PM-602-0199 be challenged in court?

Many immigration lawyers believe litigation is likely.

Potential challenges could involve:

• Administrative Procedure Act claims,
• statutory interpretation issues,
• arbitrary-and-capricious review,
• due process arguments,
• conflicts with prior USCIS practice.

As of publication, significant litigation appears increasingly likely.

---

Can USCIS still deny adjustment of status even if I qualify?

Yes.

Adjustment of status has always been discretionary.

The practical question is how USCIS exercises that discretion.

Applicants should assume that positive equities are becoming increasingly important.

---

What are positive equities?

Examples include:

• long-term residence,
• family ties,
• military service,
• community involvement,
• volunteer work,
• educational achievement,
• business ownership,
• tax compliance,
• humanitarian concerns,
• hardship to U.S. citizens.

---

Are immigration courts becoming more important?

Yes.

Many of the most important immigration issues are increasingly being litigated in:

• immigration courts,
• federal district courts,
• federal courts of appeals,
• the Supreme Court.

Litigation is likely to remain one of the primary drivers of immigration law for years to come.

---

What is habeas corpus in immigration law?

A habeas corpus petition asks a federal court to review whether immigration detention is lawful.

Recent years have seen substantial growth in detention-related habeas litigation involving:

• prolonged detention,
• bond hearings,
• constitutional due process,
• removal delays,
• ICE detention practices.

---

Are Americans becoming more supportive of immigration?

The answer is nuanced.

Recent polling suggests Americans continue supporting border security and removal of violent criminals.

At the same time, many Americans appear increasingly skeptical of broad deportation programs and certain enforcement practices. See Pew Research, Harvard-Harris, and Gallup immigration research. (Pew Research Center)

---

Why do immigration pendulum swings happen?

Historically, immigration policy is influenced by:

• economic conditions,
• labor shortages,
• demographic trends,
• wars,
• national security concerns,
• public opinion,
• judicial decisions,
• political coalitions.

When these forces change, immigration policy often changes as well.

---

Could Congress pass major immigration reform?

Anything is possible, but comprehensive immigration reform appears unlikely in the near term given current political divisions.

Most major developments are likely to come from:

• litigation,
• executive action,
• administrative policy,
• court decisions.

---

What should immigrants do right now?

The safest strategy is preparation:

• maintain lawful status when possible,
• preserve documentation,
• respond promptly to government notices,
• document positive equities,
• consult qualified immigration counsel,
• stay informed about legal developments.

Periods of uncertainty reward preparation.

Immigration Pendulum Resource Center

Current Litigation and Policy Developments

Rhode Island USCIS Benefits Freeze Case

• Reuters:
  US Judge Invalidates Policies Targeting Immigrants from 39 Countries (Reuters)
• Rhode Island Current (includes opinion):
  RI Federal Judge Strikes Down Block on Immigration Benefits (Rhode Island Current)

H-1B $100,000 Filing Fee Litigation

• Reuters:
  Trump’s $100,000 H-1B Fee Is Unlawful (Reuters)
• Reuters background coverage:
  Judge Questions Scope of Executive Authority (Reuters)

USCIS Policy Memorandum

• USCIS:
  PM-602-0199 Adjustment of Status and Discretion

---

Public Opinion Research

Pew Research Center

• About Half of Americans Say Administration Is Doing Too Much on Deportations (Pew Research Center)
• Americans’ Views of Deportations (Pew Research Center)

Harvard-Harris Poll

• January 2026 Immigration Findings (Harvard Harris Poll)

Gallup

• National Immigration Attitudes Survey

---

Historical Sources

Chinese Exclusion Act

• National Archives: Chinese Exclusion Act Records

Immigration Act of 1924

• Office of the Historian: Immigration Act of 1924

Immigration and Nationality Act of 1965

Arizona v. United States

Final Thoughts: The Pendulum Never Stops Moving

For more than 130 years, American immigration policy has moved through cycles.

Restriction.

Expansion.

Backlash.

Reform.

Enforcement.

Accommodation.

The details change with broader shifts in U.S. foreign policy and economic openness.

The pattern remains remarkably familiar.

Whether 2026 ultimately becomes remembered as a turning point remains uncertain.

But the forces that have driven previous immigration shifts are increasingly visible:

• judicial intervention,
• economic pressure,
• demographic realities,
• public opinion,
• institutional resistance,
• constitutional concerns.

Recent immigration debates also reflect larger arguments about democracy, presidential power, and how far a president can reshape policy without Congress. Both Democrats and Republicans have helped drive these swings, and a second term often intensifies an existing enforcement approach rather than fully resetting it.

History suggests those forces should not be ignored.

For immigrants, employers, families, students, and communities, the lesson is not to panic.

The lesson is to prepare.

Because while no one knows exactly where the immigration pendulum is heading next, one thing is certain:

It has never remained still for long.

About Richard Herman

Richard T. Herman is the founder of Herman Legal Group, a nationally recognized immigration law firm representing immigrants, families, students, professionals, employers, asylum seekers, and permanent residents throughout the United States. For more than three decades, he has advised clients on immigration law, federal litigation, removal defense, business immigration, citizenship, family immigration, detention matters, and complex immigration policy developments.

To discuss your immigration case, schedule a consultation with Richard Herman or a Herman Legal Group attorney.